Fort Collins weather: There's a reason this winter can't make up its mind (2024)

Fort Collins weather: There's a reason this winter can't make up its mind (1)

The dance of this Fort Collins winter would be an easy one to master: Mild, unseasonable warmth, followed by a burst of cold and maybe a dash of snow. Repeat.

It's been a winter replete withwarm, coat-shedding days andlight snows that vanish quickly from the ground. High temperatures have reached 55 degrees or warmer about one-third of days since Dec. 1.

But we're not far behind the normal snowfall total for this point in the season, and about one in seven days have left us home-bound and shiveringwith highs below freezing.

There's a name for this seasonal dance: La Nina in Northern Colorado.

The region is seeing the true colors of a weak-to-moderate La Nina, or the cooling of waters near the Equatorial Pacific. Savvy weather-watchers might remember last winter was also a La Nina winter, which is why this year feels a lot like last year.

La Nina is also the primary culprit of achingly low snowpack in southern Colorado and below-normal snowpack in Northern Colorado, meteorologists say.

It's not unusual to see big oscillations in Northern Colorado winter weather, said National Weather Service meteorologist Mike Baker. But La Nina years have a special reputation forinconsistent temperatures, he added.

More:Hate big snows and frigid temps? You'll love Fort Collins' winter forecast

"We can get big blasts of cold air, but they don't hang around very long, and then we get these big surges of warm air,"he said. "If you want to assign an adjective to a La Nina pattern from the mountains eastward, it would be 'highly variable.'"

In aLa Nina winter, the mountains often usher in cold, shallow masses of air from the northwest, Baker said. Those weak cold fronts bring us light snows or freezing drizzle paired with chilly temperatures.

But after a day or two, warm, dry winter winds called "Chinook winds" rush down the east slopeand flush out the cold air. Baker compared it to ocean waves rolling in and out of a shoreline.

This pattern happens during non-La Nina winters, too — just not as often, Baker said.

Still, Fort Collins scrounged up 17.6 inches of snow between Dec. 1 and Feb. 8, just below the normal amount of 18 inches. Meteorologists use 1981-2010 normals from the Fort Collins weather station at Colorado State University to compare daily weather to average conditions. Most of that snow came from storms that dropped less than 3 inches — the only heavier storms were on Jan. 21, when the Fort Collins weather station logged 3.9 inches, and Feb. 1, with 4.4 inches.

Compare that to the first three months of winter 2015-16, when our two heaviest storms dropped 7.4 inches and 7.8 inches. That was an El Nino year with lots of heavy, upslope snow storms.

ButMarch, historically the snowiest month of the year, is yet upon us. April brings an average of 6.2 inches of flakes, too. So the snow show isfar from over.

Projections from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center indicate recent warmth is likely to persist in Northern Colorado. So far this winter, average temperatures have lingered about 2.5 to 3.5 degrees warmerthan normal. On a big-picture scale, this follows a general warming trend that experts say is due to climate change. But the link between La Nina, El Nino and climate change needs to be researched further, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

La Nina is a driving factor for the low Colorado snowpack that is worrying water experts,Bakersaid. Mountains in north and north-central Colorado tend to fare better than the southern mountains during La Nina winters, Baker said, because the storm track is typically oriented from northwest to southwest.

"Storms come in from the Pacific Northwest, and they impact mountains in north and north-central Colorado," Baker said. "The flow is just not very favorable for development of snow in the southern mountains."

Many snowpack monitoring sites are seeing record-low snowpack, especially in the Sangre de Cristoand San Juan mountains, Colorado state climatologist Russ Schumacher said.

More:'This is the weather and climate we fear': Climate change and Colorado's ski slopes

The Arkansas and Gunnison basins are at their lowest snowpack on record, at 56 percent and 49 percent of the normals for this time of year, respectively. The Upper Rio Grande andcombined San Miguel, Dolores, Animas andSan Juan basins are at their second-lowestlevels on record, Schumacher said, citing data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

That snowpack data only goes back 35 to 40 years, Schumacher noted, so it's impossible to directly compare today's snowpack to levels during Colorado's historic 1976-77 drought.

"...but I think it’s fair to say that in many spots, this winter is just as bad if not worse as that one," Schumacher wrote in an email. "In the two southwest basins, there’s never been a year with enough snow from this point forward to get us back to normal, so we’ve been saying that there’s effectively no chance of getting to normal in those parts of the state."

Conditions look better in the South Platte and Upper Colorado river basins that feed Northern Colorado water supply. The South Platte basin sat at 93 percent of normal on Thursday, the best in the state. The Upper Colorado basin sat at 79 percent of normal.

Both basins could get back to normal if late winter and spring bring healthy snowfall, said Schumacher and Northern Water spokesman Brian Werner.

Werner noted regional water storage is 24 percent above average thanks to wet seasons in years past.

"We try not to get too confident or too panicked," he said. "We're a little over halfway through the snowpack accumulation season. We've seen years go south on us from here out, and we've seen years turn around with wet spring storms."

Winter 2017-18 in Fort Collins

December

Average maximum temperature:47.2 degrees

1981-2010 normal: 42.8 degrees

Average low temperature: 20.3 degrees

1981-2010 normal:17.7 degrees

Snow: 7.2 inches

1981-2010 normal: 8.4 inches

January

Average maximum temperature: 48.1 degrees

1981-2010 normal:44.2 degrees

Average low temperature: 19.8 degrees

1981-2010 normal:17.9 degrees

Snow: 6 inches

1981-2010 normal:7.9 inches

February (through Feb. 7)

Average maximum temperature:48.6 degrees

1981-2010 normal:44.6 degrees

Average low temperature:20 degrees

1981-2010 normal:19 degrees

Snow: 4.4 inches

1981-2010 normal:1.7 inches

Fort Collins weather: There's a reason this winter can't make up its mind (2024)

FAQs

Why is weather so unpredictable in Colorado? ›

Weather is hard to predict in Colorado because of the terrain. In Michels experience, the mountains in Colorado, especially across the Front Range, play a huge role in the weather. This is because the mountains change the way the air moves and how much moisture is in the air.

Why is this winter warmer than usual? ›

Why warmer-than-normal? Favorable things for a warmer-than-normal winter. This winter is expected to be influenced by a moderate (92% chance during winter) to strong (62% chance during this winter) El Niño.

Why does it get so cold in Colorado? ›

Colorado's position far inland and great distance from any large bodies of water, results in a usually dry climate. Also, because there are no oceans to moderate daily and seasonal temperatures, Colorado typically has hot summers and cold winters with relatively large temperature differences throughout each day.

What is the coldest it gets in Fort Collins? ›

The coldest temperature in state history, minus-61 degrees, was recorded in Maybell, on Feb. 1, 1985. In Fort Collins, the coldest temperature ever recorded was minus-41 on Feb. 1, 1951.

What is the problem in Colorado? ›

Colorado is at a crossroads. Crime is up, costs are up and there is uncertainty in our education system. How we respond to these challenges will have a long-term impact on the overall trajectory of our great state.

Which state has the most unpredictable weather? ›

In fact, no state in the lower 48 sees as much variability in its year-to-year precipitation as California. Such variability makes our weather at least as unpredictable as anything else in this volatile state.

Is 2024 going to be hotter than 2023? ›

April 2024 marked 11 consecutive months of record-breaking global temperatures. NOAA's latest projections gave 2024 a 61% chance of beating 2023 as the warmest year on record.

Is 2024 the warmest winter on record? ›

Key Points. The 2023–24 winter season ranked warmest on record for the contiguous U.S. with eight states across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast each observing their warmest winter on record.

Why is the weather not cold anymore? ›

Due to climate change, though, more precipitation is falling as rain instead of snow as winter brings fewer cold days across much of the country, said Darrian Bertrand, climate assessment specialist at the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program at the University of Oklahoma.

What is the coldest town in Colorado in winter? ›

The town of Maybell has just 76 people and is located along Highway 40 about 25 miles west of Craig. The coldest air temperature ever recorded in the state of Colorado was in Maybell on February 1, 1985 when the thermometer dropped to -61 degrees.

Are Colorado winters getting warmer? ›

The preliminary average temperature for the Winter of 2023-2024 in Colorado Springs was 35.3F. This is 3.1 degrees above normal and makes the Winter of 2023-2024 the 8th warmest on record in Colorado Springs. This is well below the warmest Winter of 1933-1934, when the average temperature was 37.6 degrees.

What part of Colorado has the mildest winters? ›

Descending air currents frequently prevent the stratification of air necessary for the occurrence of excessive cold. As a consequence, the winter climate is milder near Canon City and Penrose than anywhere else in the State.

Why is Fort Collins so popular? ›

Fort Collins is the cultural hub of northern Colorado. The city is full of so many great museums and art galleries that it's hard to choose just one to visit. Here is a list of all the great places to take in some cultural experiences.

What is the hottest month in Fort Collins CO? ›

The average high temperature in Fort Collins on July 10-27 is 88 degrees, also the hottest stretch in the city. July also has the most 100 degree and hotter days of any month in Fort Collins with 18.

Is Fort Collins a good place to live? ›

Fort Collins is a city in Colorado with a population of 168,758. Fort Collins is in Larimer County and is one of the best places to live in Colorado. Living in Fort Collins offers residents a dense suburban feel and most residents own their homes. In Fort Collins there are a lot of restaurants, coffee shops, and parks.

Why is Denver weather so hard to predict? ›

Colorado's terrain plays a big part. Throw the Continental Divide in the middle of a flat state, and from a physics standpoint, says Chapman, it messes with the circulation of the atmosphere as it comes over the mountains. Weather systems intensify once they pass the highest peaks of the divide.

Why does Colorado get so many thunderstorms? ›

In general, storms form on the part of Pikes Peak where rising air combines with the best moisture. From there, storms track back over El Paso county and Colorado Springs. The air over Colorado Springs and the plains then determines how long these storms last.

How accurate are weather forecasts in Colorado? ›

Mother Nature loves to keep everyone guessing in the Mile High City. The latest: A new Washington Post analysis of government weather data shared publicly for the first time reveals Denver's weather is among the most unpredictable in the nation.

Why is the air quality so bad in Colorado? ›

Warm and stagnant weather combined with increasing amounts of out-of-state wildfire smoke will result in ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations reaching unhealthy levels for air quality, Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment officials said in the action day alert.

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